Probabilistic forecasting of high-resolution clear-sky index time-series using a Markov-chain mixture distribution model

  title={Probabilistic forecasting of high-resolution clear-sky index time-series using a Markov-chain mixture distribution model},
  author={Joakim Munkhammar and Dennis van der Meer and Joakim Wid{\'e}n},
  journal={Solar Energy},
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Two probabilistic forecasting models for the clear-sky index, based on the Markov-chain mixture distribution (MCM) and copula clear-Sky index generators, are presented and evaluated and show that the copula model generally outperforms the PeEn, while the MCM and QR models are superior in all tested aspects.
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