Probabilistic Projections of the Total Fertility Rate for All Countries

  title={Probabilistic Projections of the Total Fertility Rate for All Countries},
  author={Leontine Alkema and Adrian E. Raftery and Patrick Gerland and Samuel J. Clark and François L E Pelletier and Thomas Buettner and Gerhard K. Heilig},
We describe a Bayesian projection model to produce country-specific projections of the total fertility rate (TFR) for all countries. The model decomposes the evolution of TFR into three phases: pre-transition high fertility, the fertility transition, and post-transition low fertility. The model for the fertility decline builds on the United Nations Population Division’s current deterministic projection methodology, which assumes that fertility will eventually fall below replacement level. It… CONTINUE READING


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