Probabilistic Forecasting of Earthquakes

  title={Probabilistic Forecasting of Earthquakes},
  author={Yan Y � Kagan and David D. Jackson}
SUMMAR Y We present long-term and short-term forecasts for magnitude 5.8 and larger earthquakes. We discuss a method for optimizing both procedures and testing their forecasting effectiveness using the likelihood function. Our forecasts are expressed as the rate density (that is, the probability per unit area and time) anywhere on the Earth. Our forecasts are for scienti®c testing only; they are not to be construed as earthquake predictions or warnings, and they carry no of®cial endorsement… CONTINUE READING
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