Probabilistic Evaluation of Counterfactual Queries

  title={Probabilistic Evaluation of Counterfactual Queries},
  author={Alexander Balke and Judea Pearl},
Evaluation of counterfactual queries (e.g., \If A were true, would C have been true?") is important to fault diagnosis, planning, and determination of liability. We present a formalism that uses probabilistic causal networks to evaluate one's belief that the counterfactual consequent, C, would have been true if the antecedent, A, were true. The antecedent of the query is interpreted as an external action that forces the proposition A to be true, which is consistent with Lewis' Miraculous… CONTINUE READING
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