Probabilistic Estimates of Transient Climate Sensitivity Subject to Uncertainty in Forcing and Natural Variability

@inproceedings{Padilla2011ProbabilisticEO,
  title={Probabilistic Estimates of Transient Climate Sensitivity Subject to Uncertainty in Forcing and Natural Variability},
  author={Lauren E. Padilla},
  year={2011}
}
In this paper we address the impact of uncertainty on estimates of transient climate sensitivity (TCS) of the globally averaged surface temperature, including both uncertainty in past forcing and internal variability in the climate record. We provide a range of probabilistic estimates of the TCS that combine these two sources of uncertainty for various underlying assumptions about the nature of the uncertainty. We also provide estimates of how quickly the uncertainty in the TCS may be expected… CONTINUE READING

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