Probabilistic Estimates of Transient Climate Sensitivity Subject to Uncertainty in Forcing and Natural Variability

  title={Probabilistic Estimates of Transient Climate Sensitivity Subject to Uncertainty in Forcing and Natural Variability},
  author={Lauren E. Padilla and Geoffrey K. Vallis and Clarence W. Rowley},
  journal={Journal of Climate},
In this paper, the authors address the impact of uncertainty on estimates of transient climate sensitivity (TCS) of the globally averaged surface temperature, including both uncertainty in past forcing and internal variability in the climate record. This study provides a range of probabilistic estimates of the TCS that combine these two sources of uncertainty for various underlying assumptions about the nature of the uncertainty. The authors also provide estimates of how quickly the uncertainty… 
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