Probabilistic Causal Reasoning

  title={Probabilistic Causal Reasoning},
  author={Thomas L. Dean and Keiji Kanazawa},
Predicting the future is an essential compo­ nent of decision making. In most situations, however, there is not enough information to make accurate predictions. In this paper, we develop a theory of causal reasoning for pre­ dictive inference under uncertainty. We em­ phasize a common type of prediction that in­ volves reasoning about persistence: whether or not a proposition once made true remains true at some later time. We provide a decision procedure with a polynomial-time algorithm for… CONTINUE READING
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