Prison population growth and crime reduction

  title={Prison population growth and crime reduction},
  author={Thomas B. Marvell and Carlisle E. Jr. Moody},
  journal={Journal of Quantitative Criminology},
The impact of state prison populations on crime is typically estimated by applying the lambda, the individual crime rate, of prisoners or arrestees. We outline the problems with this approach, attempt to reanalyze the widely divergent lambdas derived in past research, and make adjustments necessary to use lambdas for estimating the incapacitation impact. The result is an uncertain estimate of 16 to 25 index crimes averted per year per each additional prisoner. We argue that regression analysis… Expand
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