Prior Distribution Elicitation

  title={Prior Distribution Elicitation},
  author={John Quigley and Tim Bedford and Lesley Walls},
An overview of key issues associated with the elicitation of a prior probability distribution is provided. The nature of subjective probability is discussed, and the main causes of biased assessments are identified. Evidence is presented suggesting that people can improve their probability assessments under the correct conditions. The ways in which the elicitation of a prior distribution can be embedded within a process to minimize the impact of bias are examined. More advanced issues, namely… CONTINUE READING