Presidential Vote Models: A Recount

@article{Bartels2001PresidentialVM,
  title={Presidential Vote Models: A Recount},
  author={Larry M. Bartels and John R. Zaller},
  journal={PS: Political Science \& Politics},
  year={2001},
  volume={34},
  pages={9 - 20}
}
Was it Al Gore's election to lose? Most political scientists, includeing us, believed that peace and a booming economy would give Gore a significant advantage in the 2000 presidential race. The election outcome—a virtual dead heat in the popular vote—has prompted two reactions that seem to us to be quite wrong-headed. 
Ideologically Extreme Candidates in U.S. Presidential Elections, 1948–2012
Scholars routinely cite the landslide defeats of Barry Goldwater and George McGovern as evidence that American electorates punish extremism in presidential politics. Yet systematic evidence for thisExpand
The 2000 Presidential Election and the Foundations of Party Politics
Acknowledgements 1. Introduction 2. The evolution of vote intentions 3. The landscape 4. Ads and news: the campaign as a natural experiment 5. The economy, Clinton and the first phase 6. CandidateExpand
Frustrated Ambitions: The George W. Bush Presidency and the 2006 Elections
The 2006 elections dealt a strong blow to the sizeable political and policy ambitions motivating the George W. Bush presidency. Bush's attempt to entrench a conservative political regime in nationalExpand
The 2000 US Presidential Election: Can Retrospective Voting Be Saved?
According to a portrait of elections widely held in academic political science, election outcomes depend on the ‘fundamentals’, especially peace and prosperity. Al Gore's election showing in 2000Expand
Introduction—The 2004 Presidential Election Forecasts
This symposium presents seven presidential election forecasting models and their predictions of the popular two-party vote in the 2004 election. The modern age of election forecasting is now into itsExpand
"It Was About Ideology, Stupid: The Presidential Vote 2000"
* We are grateful to Damon Cann for assisting us with this research.
Incumbency Disadvantage in U.S. National Politics: The Role of Policy Inertia and Prospective Voting
We document that postwar U.S. national elections show a strong pattern of incumbency disadvantage\\": If the presidency has been held by a party for some time, that party tends to lose seats inExpand
Was the 2000 Presidential Election Predictable?
In late August 2000, at APSA's Annual Meeting, a panel of political scientists offered forecasts for the 2000 presidential election. Although they differed in particulars, most of the forecasters'Expand
Incumbency Punishment in U . S . National Politics *
We document that postwar U.S. national elections show a strong pattern of “incumbency punishment”: If the presidency has been held by a party for some time, that party tends to lose seats inExpand
Incumbency Disadvantage in U . S . National Politics 1
We document that postwar U.S. national elections show a strong pattern of “incumbency disadvantage”: If the presidency has been held by a party for some time, that party tends to lose seats inExpand
...
1
2
3
4
5
...

References

SHOWING 1-7 OF 7 REFERENCES
War, presidents, and public opinion
Originally published in 1973 by John Wiley & Sons, this volume presents a rigorous analysis of public opinion on the wars in Korea and Vietnam, and on the Presidents who led us during thoseExpand
Monica Lewinsky's Contribution to Political Science
The bounce in President Clinton's job ratings that occurred in the initial 10 days of the Lewinsky imbroglio may offer as much insight into the dynamics of public opinion as any single event inExpand
Election Cycles and War
Insight into the effect of domestic factors on the international conflict behavior of democratic states can be garnered from treating electoral cycles as cycles in the relative power of state andExpand
The American political economy : macroeconomics and electoral politics
  • D. Hibbs
  • Economics, Political Science
  • 1987
Here is the most comprehensive and authoritative work to date on relationships between the economy and politics in the years from Eisenhower through Reagan. Extending and deepening his earlier work,Expand
BREAD and PEACE: This article is based on a talk that was given by Dr. Harrar at the spring meeting of The Nutrition Foundation, New York City, March 6, 1963
In 1963, missiles are commonplace. Man expects to land on the moon seven years and $30 billion from now, and interplanetary exchange is apparently just around a cosmic corner. Modern technology isExpand
Specification Uncertainty and Model Averaging
Theory: Data analysts sometimes report (and more often produce) results from many alternative models with different explanatory variables, functional forms, observations, or exogeneity assumptions.Expand