Predictive tests for the response to cancer chemotherapy: limitations related to the prediction of rare events.

@article{Rozencweig1984PredictiveTF,
  title={Predictive tests for the response to cancer chemotherapy: limitations related to the prediction of rare events.},
  author={Marcel Rozencweig and M F Staquet},
  journal={Cancer treatment reports},
  year={1984},
  volume={68 4},
  pages={611-3}
}
The reliability of a predictive test may be characterized by its sensitivity and specificity. The probability that a predicted event will actually occur depends on these indexes as well as the frequency of the predicted event. If such a test is used to predict for the therapeutic effect of single-agent chemotherapy in cancer patients, its predictive value is markedly affected by a generally low therapeutic efficacy in an unselected population. 

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