Predictive assessment of a non-linear random effects model for multivariate time series of infectious disease counts.

@article{Paul2011PredictiveAO,
  title={Predictive assessment of a non-linear random effects model for multivariate time series of infectious disease counts.},
  author={Michaela Paul and Leonhard Held},
  journal={Statistics in medicine},
  year={2011},
  volume={30 10},
  pages={
          1118-36
        }
}
Infectious disease counts from surveillance systems are typically observed in several administrative geographical areas. In this paper, a non-linear model for the analysis of such multiple time series of counts is discussed. To account for heterogeneous incidence levels or varying transmission of a pathogen across regions, region-specific and possibly spatially correlated random effects are introduced. Inference is based on penalized likelihood methodology for mixed models. Since the use of… CONTINUE READING
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