# Predictive Multiplicity in Probabilistic Classification

@article{WatsonDaniels2022PredictiveMI, title={Predictive Multiplicity in Probabilistic Classification}, author={Jamelle Watson-Daniels and David C. Parkes and Berk Ustun}, journal={ArXiv}, year={2022}, volume={abs/2206.01131} }

There may exist multiple models that perform almost equally well for any given prediction task. We examine how predictions change across these competing models. In particular, we study predictive multiplicity – in probabilistic classiﬁcation. We formally deﬁne measures for our setting and develop optimization-based methods to compute these measures for convex empirical risk minimization problems. We apply our methodology to gain insight into why predictive multiplicity arises. We demonstrate…

## One Citation

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