The Relevance of Trend Variables for the Prediction of Corporate Crises and Insolvencies
- Mario Situm
Bankruptcy prediction research in Croatia is still pretty limited and due to data unavailability researches use different samples and statistical techniques that result with diverse findings regarding the variables that most accurately predict business failure. In this research the authors have decided to use a sample of differently sized bankrupted companies from manufacturing and wholesale/retail trade industry. Bankruptcy prediction model was developed on the basis of only publicly available information on bankruptcy and financial statements. The bankruptcy sample data consists of 78 companies that have declared bankruptcy in the Official Gazette during 2010. An equal number of stabile companies sample was randomly selected from the same industry sectors. All financial data were collected from the web site of FINA. The research has shown that publicly available financial statements and calculated financial ratios have informational value since they can be effectively used for prediction of companies' bankruptcy.