Prediction market accuracy in the long run

  title={Prediction market accuracy in the long run},
  author={Joyce E. Berg and Forrest D. Nelson and Thomas A. Rietz},
  journal={International Journal of Forecasting},
"Prediction markets" are designed specifically to forecast events such as elections. Though election prediction markets have been being conducted for almost twenty years, to date nearly all of the evidence on efficiency compares election eve forecasts with final pre-election polls and actual outcomes. Here, we present evidence that prediction markets outperform polls for longer horizons. We gather national polls for the 1988 through 2004 U.S. Presidential elections and ask whether either the… Expand

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