Prediction and Evaluation in College Hockey using the Bradley-Terry-Zermelo Model

@article{Whelan2020PredictionAE,
title={Prediction and Evaluation in College Hockey using the Bradley-Terry-Zermelo Model},
author={J. Whelan and Adam Wodon},
journal={arXiv: Applications},
year={2020}
}

We describe the application of the Bradley-Terry model to NCAA Division I Men's Ice Hockey. A Bayesian construction gives a joint posterior probability distribution for the log-strength parameters, given a set of game results and a choice of prior distribution. For several suitable choices of prior, it is straightforward to find the maximum a posteriori point (MAP) and a Hessian matrix, allowing a Gaussian approximation to be constructed. Posterior predictive probabilities can be estimated by 1… Expand