Predicting the progress and the peak of an epidemic

Abstract

The problem is statistical prediction of the number of people that will be infected with a contagious illness in a closed population over time. The prediction is based on the Susceptible-Infectious-Recovered (SIR) model of epidemic dynamics with inhomogeneous population mixing. The paper presents a theoretical analysis of the predictive accuracy based on… (More)
DOI: 10.1109/ICASSP.2009.4959633

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