Predicting the frequency of water quality standard violations: a probabilistic approach for TMDL development.

  title={Predicting the frequency of water quality standard violations: a probabilistic approach for TMDL development.},
  author={Mark E. Borsuk and Craig A. Stow and Kenneth H. Reckhow},
  journal={Environmental science & technology},
  volume={36 10},
To address the impaired condition of the water bodies listed under Section 303(d) of the Clean Water Act, over 40 000 total maximum daily loads (TMDLs) for pollutants must be developed during the next 10-15 years. Most of these will be based on the results of water quality simulation models. However, the failure of most models to incorporate residual variability and parameter uncertainty in their predictions makes them unsuitable for TMDL development. The percentile-based standards increasingly… CONTINUE READING


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