Predicting the Path of Technological Innovation: SAW vs. Moore, Bass, Gompertz, and Kryder


C is intense among rival technologies, and success depends on predicting their future trajectory of performance. To resolve this challenge, managers often follow popular heuristics, generalizations, or “laws” such as Moore’s law. We propose a model, Step And Wait (SAW), for predicting the path of technological innovation, and we compare its performance… (More)
DOI: 10.1287/mksc.1120.0739


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