Predicting solar surface large-scale magnetic field of Cycle 24

  title={Predicting solar surface large-scale magnetic field of Cycle 24},
  author={Jie Jiang and Jinbin Cao},
  journal={Journal of Atmospheric and Solar-Terrestrial Physics},
  • Jie Jiang, Jinbin Cao
  • Published 1 July 2017
  • Physics
  • Journal of Atmospheric and Solar-Terrestrial Physics

Figures from this paper

Optimization of surface flux transport models for the solar polar magnetic field
Context. The choice of free parameters in surface flux transport (SFT) models describing the evolution of the large-scale poloidal magnetic field of the Sun is critical for the correct reproduction
Application of Synoptic Magnetograms to Global Solar Activity Forecast
  • I. Kitiashvili
  • Physics, Environmental Science
    The Astrophysical Journal
  • 2020
Synoptic magnetograms provide us with knowledge about the evolution of magnetic fields on the solar surface and present important information for forecasting future solar activity. In this work,
An Updated Solar Cycle 25 Prediction With AFT: The Modern Minimum
Over the last decade there has been mounting evidence that the strength of the Sun's polar magnetic fields during a solar cycle minimum is the best predictor of the amplitude of the next solar cycle.
Global evolution of solar magnetic fields and prediction of activity cycles
  • I. Kitiashvili
  • Physics, Environmental Science
    Proceedings of the International Astronomical Union
  • 2019
Abstract Prediction of solar activity cycles is challenging because physical processes inside the Sun involve a broad range of multiscale dynamics that no model can reproduce and because the
Magnetic Coupling of the Solar Hemispheres During the Solar Cycle
This work is devoted to the study of peculiarities in the magnetic coupling of the solar hemispheres over a solar activity cycle. Two approaches have been used. We have studied (i) the magnetic
Activity Complexes and a Prominent Poleward Surge during Solar Cycle 24
Long-lasting activity complexes (ACs), characterised as a series of closely located, continuously emerging solar active regions (ARs), are considered generating prominent poleward surges from
State-of-the-art of kinematic modeling the solar cycle
  • Jie Jiang
  • Physics
    Proceedings of the International Astronomical Union
  • 2018
Abstract The kinematic modeling of the solar convection zone remains the workhorse of the solar dynamo to understand the solar cycle. During the past several years, the major progress in
Predictability of the Solar Cycle Over One Cycle
The prediction of the strength of future solar cycles is of interest because of its practical significance for space weather and as a test of our theoretical understanding of the solar cycle. The
Different Contributions to Space Weather and Space Climate from Different Big Solar Active Regions
The purpose of this paper is to show that large active regions (ARs) with different magnetic configurations have different contributions to short-term and long-term variations of the Sun. As a case
Galactic Cosmic Radiation in the Interplanetary Space Through a Modern Secular Minimum
Recent solar conditions indicate a persistent decline in solar activity—possibly similar to the past solar grand minima. During such periods of low solar activity, the fluxes of galactic cosmic rays


Evolution of the large-scale magnetic field on the solar surface: a parameter study
Magnetic flux emerging on the Sun's surface in the form of bipolar magnetic regions is redistributed by supergranular diffusion, a poleward meridional flow and differential rotation. We perform a
Predicting the Sun's Polar Magnetic Fields with a Surface Flux Transport Model
The Sun's polar magnetic fields are directly related to solar cycle variability. The strength of the polar fields at the start (minimum) of a cycle determine the subsequent amplitude of that cycle.
The solar magnetic field since 1700. II. Physical reconstruction of total, polar and open flux
We have used semi-synthetic records of emerging sunspot groups based on sunspot number data as input for a surface flux transport model to reconstruct the evolution of the large-scale solar magnetic
Predicting the amplitude and hemispheric asymmetry of solar cycle 25 with surface flux transport
Evidence strongly indicates that the strength of the Sun's polar fields near the time of a sunspot cycle minimum determines the strength of the following solar activity cycle. We use our Advective
Surface Flux Transport and the Evolution of the Sun’s Polar Fields
The evolution of the polar fields occupies a central place in flux transport (Babcock–Leighton) models of the solar cycle. We discuss the relationship between surface flux transport and polar field
Solar Magnetism in the Polar Regions
This review describes observations of the polar magnetic fields, models for the cyclical formation and decay of these fields, and evidence of their great influence in the solar atmosphere. The polar
Solar activity forecast with a dynamo model
Although systematic measurements of the Sun’s polar magnetic field exist only from mid-1970s, other proxies can be used to infer the polar field at earlier times. The observational data indicate a
The Effect of Activity-related Meridional Flow Modulation on the Strength of the Solar Polar Magnetic Field
We studied the effect of the perturbation of the meridional flow in the activity belts detected by local helioseismology on the development and strength of the surface magnetic field at the polar
Photospheric and heliospheric magnetic fields
The magnetic field in the heliosphere evolves in response to the photospheric field at its base. This evolution, together with the rotation of the Sun, drives space weather through the continually
Modelling the Global Solar Corona: Filament Chirality Observations and Surface Simulations
Abstract The hemispheric pattern of solar filaments is considered in the context of the global magnetic field of the solar corona. In recent work Mackay and van Ballegooijen have shown how, for a