Predicting future duration from present age: A critical assessment

@article{Caves2000PredictingFD,
  title={Predicting future duration from present age: A critical assessment},
  author={C. Caves},
  journal={Contemporary Physics},
  year={2000},
  volume={41},
  pages={143 - 153}
}
  • C. Caves
  • Published 2000
  • Physics
  • Contemporary Physics
  • Using a temporal version of the Copernican principle, Gott has proposed a statistical predictor of future longevity based on present age (Gott III, J. R., 1993, Nature, 363, 315) and applied the predictor to a variety of examples, including the longevity of the human species. Although Gott's proposal contains a grain of truth, it does not have the universal predictive power that he attributes to it. 
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    Valuation, Intertemporal Choice, and Self-Control
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    Optimal Predictions in Everyday Cognition
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    Gott's doomsday argument
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    The Doomsday Argument and the Number of Possible Observers
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