# Predicting epidemic outbreak from individual features of the spreaders

@article{Silva2012PredictingEO, title={Predicting epidemic outbreak from individual features of the spreaders}, author={Renato Aparecido Pimentel da Silva and Matheus Palhares Viana and Luciano da Fontoura Costa}, journal={ArXiv}, year={2012}, volume={abs/1202.0024} }

Knowing which individuals can be more efficient in spreading a pathogen throughout a determinate environment is a fundamental question in disease control. Indeed, over recent years the spread of epidemic diseases and its relationship with the topology of the involved system have been a recurrent topic in complex network theory, taking into account both network models and real-world data. In this paper we explore possible correlations between the heterogeneous spread of an epidemic disease…

## 28 Citations

Leveraging percolation theory to single out influential spreaders in networks

- Mathematics, Computer SciencePhysical review. E
- 2016

It is proved that the recently introduced nonbacktracking centrality is the optimal criterion for the identification of influential spreaders in locally tree-like networks at criticality and is a highly reliable metric to identify top influential spreader also in generic graphs not embedded in space and for noncritical spreading.

Epidemic processes in complex networks

- Physics, Computer ScienceArXiv
- 2014

A coherent and comprehensive review of the vast research activity concerning epidemic processes is presented, detailing the successful theoretical approaches as well as making their limits and assumptions clear.

Identification of effective spreaders in contact networks using dynamical influence

- Computer Science, MedicineAppl. Netw. Sci.
- 2021

This paper improves eigenvector-based spreader selection by introducing the non-linear relationship between contact time and the probability of disease transmission into the assessment of network dynamics, and alters the Laplacian matrix to highlight why nodes with a high degree are such influential disease spreaders.

The role of centrality for the identification of influential spreaders in complex networks

- Mathematics, MedicinePhysical review. E, Statistical, nonlinear, and soft matter physics
- 2014

This paper investigates how nine centrality measures correlate with the disease and rumor spreading capabilities of the nodes in different synthetic and real-world networks and proposes a generalization of the random walk accessibility as a new centrality measure and derive analytical expressions for the latter measure for simple network configurations.

Dynamic communicability and epidemic spread: a case study on an empirical dynamic contact network

- Computer Science, MathematicsJ. Complex Networks
- 2017

It is shown that temporal centrality identifies a distinct set of top-spreaders than centrality based on the time-aggregated binarized contact matrix, so that taken together, the accuracy of capturing top- spreaders improves significantly and the temporal measure does not necessarily outperform less complex measures.

Node influence identification via resource allocation dynamics

- Computer Science
- 2014

An improved method namely RAD to generate the ranking list to evaluate the node influence by taking into account the resource allocation dynamics (RAD) and the k-shell decomposition method is presented.

Understanding the influence of all nodes in a network

- Computer Science, MedicineScientific reports
- 2015

The expected force, which accurately quantifies node spreading power under all primary epidemiological models across a wide range of archetypical human contact networks, can be computed independently for individual nodes, making it applicable for networks whose adjacency matrix is dynamic, not well specified, or overwhelmingly large.

Reconstructing propagation networks with temporal similarity

- Computer Science, MedicineScientific reports
- 2015

This paper applies the node similarity metrics to reconstruct the underlying networks hosting the propagation of an epidemic and proposes a temporal similarity metric which takes into account the time information of the spreading.

Modeling spreading processes in complex networks

- Computer Science
- 2017

A new unifying model is proposed, enabling to model and understand spreading processes on large systems, characterization of new phenomena on multilayer networks, such as layer-wise localization and the barrier effect and an spectral analysis of multilayers systems, suggesting a universal parameter and proposing a new analytical tool for its analysis.

The relationship between structure and function in locally observed complex networks

- Physics
- 2013

Recently, studies looking at the small scale interactions taking place in complex networks have started to unveil the wealth of interactions that occur between groups of nodes. Such findings make the…

## References

SHOWING 1-10 OF 34 REFERENCES

Epidemic spreading on weighted contact networks

- Computer Science2007 2nd Bio-Inspired Models of Network, Information and Computing Systems
- 2007

An improved threshold is found in allowing a spectrum of contact within a contact network and this expanded contact network also allows for asymmetric contact such as a mother caring for her child.

Networks and the Epidemiology of Infectious Disease

- Computer Science, PhysicsInterdisciplinary perspectives on infectious diseases
- 2011

A personalised overview into the areas of network epidemiology that have seen the greatest progress in recent years or have the greatest potential to provide novel insights is provided, focusing on the interplay between network theory and epidemiology.

Demographic structure and pathogen dynamics on the network of livestock movements in Great Britain

- Geography, MedicineProceedings of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences
- 2006

A percolation threshold is identified in the structure of the livestock network, indicating that, while there is little possibility of a national epidemic of FMD in winter when the catastrophic 2001 epidemic began, there remains a risk in late summer or early autumn.

Epidemic spreading in scale-free networks.

- Medicine, PhysicsPhysical review letters
- 2001

A dynamical model for the spreading of infections on scale-free networks is defined, finding the absence of an epidemic threshold and its associated critical behavior and this new epidemiological framework rationalizes data of computer viruses and could help in the understanding of other spreading phenomena on communication and social networks.

Epidemics and percolation in small-world networks.

- Mathematics, MedicinePhysical review. E, Statistical physics, plasmas, fluids, and related interdisciplinary topics
- 2000

The resulting models display epidemic behavior when the infection or transmission probability rises above the threshold for site or bond percolation on the network, and are given exact solutions for the position of this threshold in a variety of cases.

Epidemic spread in weighted scale-free networks

- Mathematics, Physics
- 2004

In this letter, we investigate the detailed epidemic spreading process in scale-free networks with links' weights that denote familiarity between two individuals and find that spreading velocity…

Spatial Networks

- Computer Science, PhysicsArXiv
- 2010

This work will expose thoroughly the current state of the understanding of how the spatial constraints affect the structure and properties of these networks, and review the most recent empirical observations and the most important models of spatial networks.

Halting viruses in scale-free networks.

- Physics, BiologyPhysical review. E, Statistical, nonlinear, and soft matter physics
- 2002

It is demonstrated that policies that discriminate between the nodes, curing mostly the highly connected nodes, can restore a finite epidemic threshold and potentially eradicate a virus.

Reaction–diffusion processes and metapopulation models in heterogeneous networks

- Physics, Mathematics
- 2007

This work lays out a theoretical and computational microscopic framework for the study of a wide range of realistic metapopulation and agent-based models that include the complex features of real-world networks.

A Weighted Configuration Model and Inhomogeneous Epidemics

- Mathematics
- 2011

A random graph model with prescribed degree distribution and degree dependent edge weights is introduced. Each vertex is independently equipped with a random number of half-edges and each half-edge…