Predicting Solar Flares by Data Assimilation in Avalanche Models

  title={Predicting Solar Flares by Data Assimilation in Avalanche Models},
  author={{\'E}ric B{\'e}langer and Alain P. Vincent and Paul Charbonneau},
  journal={Solar Physics},
Abstract Data assimilation techniques, developed in the past two decades mainly for weather prediction, produce better forecasts by taking advantage of both theoretical/numerical models and real-time observations. In this paper, we explore the possibility of applying the four-dimensional variational data assimilation (4D-VAR) technique to the prediction of solar flares. We do so in the context of a continuous version of the classical cellular-automaton-based self-organized critical avalanche… 

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