Predicting Future Duration from Present Age : A Critical Assessment ∗

  title={Predicting Future Duration from Present Age : A Critical Assessment ∗},
  author={Carlton M. Caves},
Using a temporal version of the Copernican principle, Gott has proposed a statistical predictor of future longevity based on present age [J. R. Gott III, Nature 363, 315 (1993)] and applied the predictor to a variety of examples, including the longevity of the human species. Though Gott’s proposal contains a grain of truth, it does not have the universal predictive power that he attributes to it. Returning from a five-week residence at the Isaac Newton Institute this past summer, I found on my… CONTINUE READING
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