Predicting Excess Returns With Public and Insider Information : The Case of Thrift Conversions

@inproceedings{Wilcox1998PredictingER,
  title={Predicting Excess Returns With Public and Insider Information : The Case of Thrift Conversions},
  author={James Allen Wilcox and Peter Dr. Dipl.-Chem. Haas},
  year={1998}
}
We hypothesize that mutual thrifts often converted to stock ownership when the returns to conversion were predicted to be high. We show that excess returns on the initial public offerings (IPOs) of thrift conversions during the 1990s were predictable with publicly available data. The same conditions that predicted higher excess returns on thrift conversions also predicted that conversion was more likely. Higher predicted excess returns significantly raised the amounts of the IPOs that insiders… CONTINUE READING

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