# Predictability of rogue events.

@article{Birkholz2015PredictabilityOR, title={Predictability of rogue events.}, author={Simon Birkholz and C Br{\'e}e and Ayhan Demircan and G{\"u}nter Steinmeyer}, journal={Physical review letters}, year={2015}, volume={114 21}, pages={ 213901 } }

Using experimental data from three different rogue wave supporting systems, determinism, and predictability of the underlying dynamics are evaluated with methods of nonlinear time series analysis. We included original records from the Draupner platform in the North Sea as well as time series from two optical systems in our analysis. One of the latter was measured in the infrared tail of optical fiber supercontinua, the other in the fluence profiles of multifilaments. All three data sets exhibit…

## 68 Citations

### Nonlinear time series analysis: towards an effective forecast of rogue waves

- PhysicsSPIE LASE
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### Capturing rogue waves by multi-point statistics

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### Rogue waves and entropy consumption

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Time series analysis as well as the appearance of particular focusing wind conditions may enable an effective forecast of such rogue-wave prone situations, and extracting the dimension from ocean time series allows much more specific estimation of the rogue wave probability.

### Real world ocean rogue waves explained without the modulational instability

- Environmental ScienceScientific reports
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This work analyzes several sets of field data in various European locations with various tools, and finds that the main generation mechanism for rogue waves is the constructive interference of elementary waves enhanced by second-order bound nonlinearities and not the modulational instability.

### Random walks across the sea: the origin of rogue waves?

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Ocean rogue waves are large and suddenly appearing surface gravity waves, which may cause severe damage to ships and other maritime structures. Despite years of research, the exact origin of rogue…

### Linear and Nonlinear Rogue Waves in Optical Systems

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This thesis describes the study of several different classes of linear and nonlinear effects in optics that generatelarge amplitude extreme events with properties analogous to the destructive “rogue…

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The numerical simulation of the nonlinear dynamics of random sea waves at sufficiently small Benjamin–Feir indices and its comparison with the linear dynamics (at the coincidence of spatial Fourier…

### Optical polarization rogue waves and their identifications

- PhysicsJournal of Physics: Photonics
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Optical rogue waves are a class of pulses with extremely large amplitudes, whose probability of occurrence unexpectedly deviates from Gaussian-law statistics. To date, the mechanisms of rogue wave…

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