Predictability in the Epidemic‐Type Aftershock Sequence model of interacting triggered seismicity

  title={Predictability in the Epidemic‐Type Aftershock Sequence model of interacting triggered seismicity},
  author={Agn{\'e}s Helmstetter and Didier Sornette},
  journal={Journal of Geophysical Research},
[1] As part of an effort to develop a systematic methodology for earthquake forecasting, we use a simple model of seismicity on the basis of interacting events which may trigger a cascade of earthquakes, known as the Epidemic-Type Aftershock Sequence model (ETAS). The ETAS model is constructed on a bare (unrenormalized) Omori law, the Gutenberg-Richter law, and the idea that large events trigger more numerous aftershocks. For simplicity, we do not use the information on the spatial location of… 

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