Precision of incidence predictions based on Poisson distributed observations.

@article{Hakulinen1994PrecisionOI,
  title={Precision of incidence predictions based on Poisson distributed observations.},
  author={Timo Hakulinen and Tadeusz Dyba},
  journal={Statistics in medicine},
  year={1994},
  volume={13 15},
  pages={1513-23}
}
Disease incidence predictions are useful for a number of administrative and scientific purposes. The simplest ones are made using trend extrapolation, on either an arithmetic or a logarithmic scale. This paper shows how approximate confidence prediction intervals can be calculated for such predictions, both for the total number of cases and for the age-adjusted incidence rates, by assuming Poisson distribution of the age and period specific numbers of incident cases. Generalizations for… CONTINUE READING

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