Practical Application and Empirical Evaluation of Reference Class Forecasting for Project Management

@article{Batselier2016PracticalAA,
  title={Practical Application and Empirical Evaluation of Reference Class Forecasting for Project Management},
  author={Jordy Batselier and M. Vanhoucke},
  journal={Project Management Journal},
  year={2016},
  volume={47},
  pages={36 - 51}
}
Traditionally, project managers produce cost and time forecasts by predicting the future course of specific events. In contrast, reference class forecasting (RCF) bypasses human judgment by basing forecasts on the actual outcomes of past projects similar to the project being forecasted. The RCF technique is compared with the most common traditional project forecasting methods, such as those based on Monte Carlo simulation and earned value management (EVM). The conducted evaluation is entirely… Expand
15 Citations
Rethinking IT project financial risk prediction using reference class forecasting technique
  • 5
Improving quality of decision making in project approvals at the Medical Research Council
  • PDF
An Investigation of Estimation Techniques for Information Technology Projects
Tolerance limits for project control: An overview of different approaches
  • 4
The front-end of projects: a systematic literature review and structuring
  • 15
  • PDF
Five things you should know about cost overrun
  • 33
Five Things You Should Know about Cost Overrun
  • 1
  • Highly Influenced
...
1
2
...

References

SHOWING 1-10 OF 29 REFERENCES
Empirical Evaluation of Earned Value Management Forecasting Accuracy for Time and Cost
  • 23
Combination of Project Cost Forecasts in Earned Value Management
  • 45
Project Duration Forecasting … A Comparison of Earned Value Management Methods to Earned Schedule
  • 32
  • PDF
A Bayesian Approach to Improve Estimate at Completion in Earned Value Management
  • 45
A simulation and evaluation of earned value metrics to forecast the project duration
  • 150
From Nobel Prize to Project Management: Getting Risks Right
  • 324
  • Highly Influential
  • PDF
Measuring Time: Improving Project Performance Using Earned Value Management
  • 95
Construction and evaluation framework for a real-life project database
  • 64
  • PDF
Classification of articles and journals on project control and earned value management
  • 64
  • PDF
...
1
2
3
...