Poverty in China Since 1950: A Counterfactual Perspective

  title={Poverty in China Since 1950: A Counterfactual Perspective},
  author={Martin Ravallion},
  journal={NBER Working Paper Series},
  • M. Ravallion
  • Published 1 January 2021
  • Economics
  • NBER Working Paper Series
The other side of the coin to post-reform success is often pre-reform failure, and the policy lessons are found on both sides. The paper estimates how much of China’s poverty rate around 1980—near the outset of Deng Xiaoping’s pro-market reforms—is attributable to the prior Maoist regime. Based on the history, it is argued that South Korea and Taiwan provide a relevant counterfactual. Then a difference-in-difference estimate using historical data indicates that about two thirds of China’s… 
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