Potential short-term earthquake forecasting by farm-animal monitoring

  title={Potential short-term earthquake forecasting by farm-animal monitoring},
  author={Martin Wikelski and Uschi Mueller and Paola Scocco and Andrea Catorci and Lev V. Desinov and Mikhail Yurjevich Belyaev and Daniel A. Keim and Winfried Pohlmeier and Gerhard Fechteler and P. Martin Mai},
Whether changes in animal behavior allow for short-term earthquake predictions has been debated for a long time. During the 2016/2017 earthquake sequence in Italy, we instrumentally observed the activity of farm animals (cows, dogs, sheep) close to the epicenter of the devastating magnitude M6.6 Norcia earthquake (Oct-Nov 2016) and over a subsequent longer observation period (Jan-Apr 2017). Relating 5304 (in 2016) and 12948 (in 2017) earthquakes with a wide magnitude range (0.4 ≤ M ≤ 6.6) to… Expand
2 Citations
Comment on “Potential short‐term earthquake forecasting by farm animal monitoring” by Wikelski, Mueller, Scocco, Catorci, Desinov, Belyaev, Keim, Pohlmeier, Fechteler, and Mai
Earthquake forecasting is considered to be the “holy grail” in seismology. Many forecasting methods have been suggested over decades. Some of them are based on geophysical observations related to theExpand
Community/Public Approach to Earthquake Forecasting in the Era of Big Data: An On-going Endeavor in China
  • Zhongliang Wu, Yongxian Zhang
  • Surveys in Geophysics
  • 2021
Public Participation (in earthquake monitoring and forecast) and Public Preparedness (for seismic disaster risk reduction), or P4, is one of the interesting, and often underestimated approach toExpand


Changes in Animal Activity Prior to a Major (M=7) Earthquake in the Peruvian Andes
Abstract During earthquake preparation geophysical processes occur over varying temporal and spatial scales, some leaving their mark on the surface environment, on various biota, and even affectingExpand
Unusual Animal Behavior Preceding the 2011 Earthquake off the Pacific Coast of Tohoku, Japan: A Way to Predict the Approach of Large Earthquakes
Changes in particular animal species preceding a large EQ to improve the research on predicting EQs and to focus on the ratio of emerged UABs or specific behaviors prior to EQs. Expand
Biological Anomalies around the 2009 L’Aquila Earthquake
  • C. Fidani
  • Computer Science, Medicine
  • Animals : an open access journal from MDPI
  • 2013
The aim of this study was to order the biological observations to allow future work to determine whether these observations were influenced by geophysical parameters, and to causally support the hypotheses that they were induced by the physical presence of gas, electric charges and electromagnetic waves in atmosphere. Expand
Predicting the unpredictable; evidence of pre‐seismic anticipatory behaviour in the common toad
Reduced toad activity coincides with pre-seismic perturbations in the ionosphere, detected by very low frequency (VLF) radio sounding and is compared with reported responses to seismic activity of several other species. Expand
Cows Come Down from the Mountains before the (Mw = 6.1) Earthquake Colfiorito in September 1997; A Single Case Study
The case of a herd of cows leaving the hill pasture and descending near to the village streets two days before a strong earthquake, confirmed by an entire village, is reported. Expand
Preearthquake animal behavior: A closer look for alternative causes
Recently published results of post-earthquake interviews with animal owners in two epicentral areas seem to indicate that animals behave unusually before some earthquakes. A review of theExpand
Behavioral change related to Wenchuan devastating earthquake in mice.
Results indicated that the behaviors, including circadian rhythm and activity, in these mice indeed changed prior to the earthquake, and the behavioral change might be associated with a change of geomagnetic intensity. Expand
Predicting the 1975 Haicheng Earthquake
The publicized four-stage (long-term, middle-term, short-term, and imminent) prediction of the M 7.3 1975 Haicheng, China, earthquake once generated worldwide fascination. Yet the prediction processExpand
Earthquake Prediction by Animals: Evolution and Sensory Perception
Animals living within seismically active regions are subjected episod- ically to intense ground shaking that can kill individuals through burrow collapse, egg destruction, and tsunami action.Expand
The Amatrice 2016 seismic sequence: a preliminary look at the mainshock and aftershocks distribution
We relocated the aftershocks of the M W 6.0 Amatrice 2016 mainshock by inverting with a non-linear probabilitstic method P- and S-arrival time readings produced and released in near realtime by theExpand