Population vulnerability models for asteroid impact risk assessment

  title={Population vulnerability models for asteroid impact risk assessment},
  author={Clemens M. Rumpf and Hugh G. Lewis and Peter M. Atkinson},
  journal={Meteoritics \& Planetary Science},
An asteroid impact is a low probability event with potentially devastating consequences. The Asteroid Risk Mitigation Optimization and Research (ARMOR) software tool calculates whether a colliding asteroid experiences an airburst or surface impact and calculates effect severity as well as reach on the global map. To calculate the consequences of an impact in terms of loss of human life, new vulnerability models are derived that connect the severity of seven impact effects (strong winds… 
Asteroid impact risk
Asteroid impacts are a hazard to human populations. A method to assess the impact risk of hazardous asteroids was developed in this work, making use of the universal concept of risk culminating in
Asteroid Impact Risk: Ground Hazard versus Impactor Size
Monte Carlo sampling to produce stochastic sets of potential impact scenarios based on uncertainty distributions characterizing key asteroid parameters. For each impact case, the entry and
Asteroid Impact Risk Assessment: Rationalizing the Threat
The asteroid impact hazard is difficult to conceive in the context of everyday human life. Large-scale impact events of global or regional consequences might not happen for generations, but the
Asteroid impact effects and their immediate hazards for human populations
A set of 50,000 artificial Earth impacting asteroids was used to obtain, for the first time, information about the dominance of individual impact effects such as wind blast, overpressure shock,
Short-Term Consequences of Asteroid Impacts into the Ocean: A Portuguese Case Study
Asteroid impacts are a proven global threat, meaning that any location on Earth might be a subject to their consequences. Such collisions are not likely in any person’s lifetime, but their aftermath
Uncertain human consequences in asteroid risk analysis and the global catastrophe threshold
This paper studies the risk of collision between asteroids and Earth. It focuses on uncertainty in the human consequences of asteroid collisions, with emphasis on the possibility of global


Asteroid Impact Tsunami: A Probabilistic Hazard Assessment
Abstract We investigate the generation, propagation, and probabilistic hazard of tsunami spawned by oceanic asteroid impacts. The process first links the depth and diameter of parabolic impact
Quantifying the Risk Posed by Potential Earth Impacts
A new hazard scale that will describe the risk posed by a particular potential impact in both absolute and relative terms is proposed and described, which reflects the urgency of the situation in a natural way and thus can guide specialists in assessing the computational and observational effort appropriate for a given situation.
Evacuation simulation modelling in the event of a Near Earth Object impact
If an Earth-threatening Near Earth Object (NEO) is detected, it is important that decision makers, such as the United Nations together with nations at risk, decide how to approach such a natural
Impact-generated Tsunamis: An Over-rated Hazard
A number of authors have suggested that oceanic waves (tsunami) created by the impact of relatively small asteroids into the Earth's oceans might cause widespread devastation to coastal cities. If
Numerical modelling of generation, propagation and run‐up of tsunamis caused by oceanic impacts: model strategy and technical solutions
SUMMARY Hypervelocity impacts of asteroids in marine environments produce tsunami waves independent of the water depth and the diameter of the projectile. However, the characteristics of the induced
Earth Impact Effects Program: A Web‐based computer program for calculating the regional environmental consequences of a meteoroid impact on Earth
Abstract— We have developed a Web‐based program for quickly estimating the regional environmental consequences of a comet or asteroid impact on Earth (http:www.lpl.arizona.eduimpacteffects). This
The strike of a cosmic body into a marine environment differs in several respects from impact on land. Oceans cover approximately 70% of the Earth's surface, implying not only that oceanic impact is
Calculations of Asteroid Impacts into Deep and Shallow Water
Contrary to received opinion, ocean impacts of small (<500 m) asteroids do not produce tsunamis that lead to world-wide devastation. In fact the most dangerous features of ocean impacts, just as for