Poleward expansion of tropical cyclone latitudes in warming climates

  title={Poleward expansion of tropical cyclone latitudes in warming climates},
  author={Joshua H. P. Studholme and Alexey V. Fedorov and Sergey K. Gulev and Kerry A. Emanuel and Kevin I. Hodges},
  journal={Nature Geoscience},
  pages={14 - 28}
Tropical cyclones (TCs, also known as hurricanes and typhoons) generally form at low latitudes with access to the warm waters of the tropical oceans, but far enough off the equator to allow planetary rotation to cause aggregating convection to spin up into coherent vortices. Yet, current prognostic frameworks for TC latitudes make contradictory predictions for climate change. Simulations of past warm climates, such as the Eocene and Pliocene, show that TCs can form and intensify at higher… 
4 Citations
Classification of tropical cyclone containing images using a convolutional neural network: performance and sensitivity to the learning dataset
A convolutional neural network is adapted and tested for the classification of reanalysis outputs according to the presence or absence of TCs, using the HURDAT2 dataset of cyclone tracks and the ERA5 and MERRA-2 reanalyses.
Extratropical transition of tropical cyclones in a multiresolution ensemble of atmosphere-only and fully coupled global climate models
Tropical cyclones undergo extratropical transition (ET) in every ocean basin. Projected changes in ET frequency under climate change are uncertain and differ between basins, so multimodel studies
Hurricane‐associated population decrease in a critically endangered long‐lived reptile
Catastrophic events, like hurricanes, bring lethal conditions that can have population‐altering effects. The threatened Caribbean dry forest occurs in a region known for its high‐intensity hurricane


Tropical cyclogenesis in warm climates simulated by a cloud-system resolving model
Here we investigate tropical cyclogenesis in warm climates, focusing on the effect of reduced equator-to-pole temperature gradient relevant to past equable climates and, potentially, to future
Tropical cyclones and permanent El Niño in the early Pliocene epoch
A positive feedback between hurricanes and the upper-ocean circulation in the tropical Pacific Ocean that may have been essential for maintaining warm, El Niño-like conditions during the early Pliocene is described.
Tropical cyclone motion in a changing climate
It is shown that future anthropogenic warming can lead to a robust slowing of TC motion, particularly in the midlatitudes, which could decelerate TC motion near populated midlatitude regions in Asia and North America, potentially compounding future TC-related damages.
Evolution of tropical cyclone genesis regions during the Cenozoic era
Model simulations show that tropical cyclones were preferably formed in the Southern Hemisphere during the warmer Early Eocene, but then shifted along a cooling climate across the Cenozoic to the Northern Hemisphere, and today's conditions favoring the western North Pacific as the largest genesis center is a result of closing tropical seaways during the Pliocene.
Global warming shifts Pacific tropical cyclone location
A global high‐resolution (∼40 km) atmospheric general circulation model (ECHAM5 T319) is used to investigate the change of tropical cyclone frequency in the North Pacific under global warming. A time
Regional variations in the ocean response to tropical cyclones: Ocean mixing versus low cloud suppression
Tropical cyclones (TCs) tend to cool sea surface temperature (SST) via enhanced vertical mixing and evaporative fluxes. This cooling is substantially reduced in the subtropics, especially in the
Idealized Aquaplanet Simulations of Tropical Cyclone Activity: Significance of Temperature Gradients, Hadley Circulation, and Zonal Asymmetry
Earlier studies have proposed many semiempirical relations between climate and tropical cyclone (TC) activity. To explore these relations, this study conducts idealized aquaplanet experiments using
Recent poleward shift of tropical cyclone formation linked to Hadley cell expansion
Recent research indicates that the annual-mean locations of tropical cyclones have migrated toward higher latitudes. Concurrently, an anthropogenically forced tropical expansion has been observed,
Hurricanes and Global Warming: Results from Downscaling IPCC AR4 Simulations
Changes in tropical cyclone activity are among the more potentially consequential results of global climate change, and it is therefore of considerable interest to understand how anthropogenic