Planning for success: The social approach to building Bayesian models

Abstract

We introduce a new variant of Markov decision processes called MDPs with action results, and a variant of dynamic Bayesian networks called bowties, for modeling the effects of stochastic actions. Bowties grew out of our work on decision-support systems for advisors in the US social welfare system. Bowties, and our elicitation process for them, are designed… (More)

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