Plague and Long‐Term Development: The Lasting Effects of the 1629–30 Epidemic on the Italian Cities

  title={Plague and Long‐Term Development: The Lasting Effects of the 1629–30 Epidemic on the Italian Cities},
  author={Guido Alfani and Marco Percoco},
  journal={Econometric Modeling: Macroeconomics eJournal},
  • G. Alfani, M. Percoco
  • Published 1 November 2019
  • Economics, History
  • Econometric Modeling: Macroeconomics eJournal
The paper aims to analyze the effects of plague on the long-term development of Italian cities, with particular attention to the 1629-30 epidemic. By using a new dataset on plague mortality rates in 49 cities covering the period 1575-1700 ca., an economic geography model verifying the existence of multiple equilibria is estimated. It is found that cities affected only by the 1629-30 plague recovered in the short run, whereas cities affected by both the 1575-77 and 1629-30 epidemic show… 

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