Performance of the ARPA-SMR limited-area ensemble prediction system: two flood cases

@inproceedings{Montani2001PerformanceOT,
  title={Performance of the ARPA-SMR limited-area ensemble prediction system: two flood cases},
  author={Andrea Montani and Chiara Marsigli and Fabrizio Nerozzi and Tiziana Paccagnella and Roberto Buizza},
  year={2001}
}
The performance of the ARPA-SMR Limited-area Ensemble Prediction System (LEPS), generated by nesting a limited-area model on selected members of the ECMWF targeted ensemble, is evaluated for two flood events that occurred during September 1992. The predictability of the events is studied for forecast times ranging from 2 to 4 days. The extent to which floods localised in time and space can be forecast at high resolution in probabilistic terms was investigated. Rainfall probability maps… CONTINUE READING

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