Patriotism or Opinion Leadership?

  title={Patriotism or Opinion Leadership?},
  author={William Baker and John R. O'neal},
  journal={Journal of Conflict Resolution},
  pages={661 - 687}
  • W. Baker, J. O'neal
  • Published 1 October 2001
  • Political Science
  • Journal of Conflict Resolution
In this study, the “rally effect”—the propensity for the American public to put aside political differences and support the president during international crises—is measured by considering the changes in presidential popularity following all 193 Militarized Interstate Disputes (MIDs) between 1933 and 1992 as identified by the Correlates of War project. Summary analyses find minor, statistically insignificant rallies associated with uses of force, although sizable rallies are associated with… 

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Although the diversionary theory of international conflict is intuitively plausible and is supported by much anecdotal evidence, quantitative tests generally have failed to establish a systemic link

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