Party, Performance, and Strategic Politicians: The Dynamics of Elections for Senator and Governor in 2006

@article{Brown2008PartyPA,
  title={Party, Performance, and Strategic Politicians: The Dynamics of Elections for Senator and Governor in 2006},
  author={Adam R. Brown and Gary C. Jacobson},
  journal={State Politics \& Policy Quarterly},
  year={2008},
  volume={8},
  pages={384 - 409}
}
In this article, we analyze a unique set of state-level monthly survey data covering the eighteen months preceding the 2006 election to estimate (1) the relative effects of national and local conditions on the strength of challenges to incumbent senators and governors and (2) the effects of these challenges on incumbent popularity and, ultimately, vote shares. The analysis confirms several of the basic components of the theory that the strategic behavior of candidates and campaign contributors… 

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