Partition-edit-count: naive extensional reasoning in judgment of conditional probability.
@article{Fox2004PartitioneditcountNE,
title={Partition-edit-count: naive extensional reasoning in judgment of conditional probability.},
author={Craig R. Fox and Jonathan Levav},
journal={Journal of experimental psychology. General},
year={2004},
volume={133 4},
pages={
626-42
}
}The authors provide evidence that people typically evaluate conditional probabilities by subjectively partitioning the sample space into n interchangeable events, editing out events that can be eliminated on the basis of conditioning information, counting remaining events, then reporting probabilities as a ratio of the number of focal to total events. Participants' responses to conditional probability problems were influenced by irrelevant information (Study 1), small variations in problem…
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