• Corpus ID: 13487222

Partial Information Framework: Aggregating Estimates from Diverse Information Sources

  title={Partial Information Framework: Aggregating Estimates from Diverse Information Sources},
  author={Ville A. Satop{\"a}{\"a} and Shane T. Jensen and Robin Pemantle and Lyle H. Ungar},
  journal={arXiv: Methodology},
Prediction polling is an increasingly popular form of crowdsourcing in which multiple participants estimate the probability or magnitude of some future event. These estimates are then aggregated into a single forecast. Historically, randomness in scientific estimation has been generally assumed to arise from unmeasured factors which are viewed as measurement noise. However, when combining subjective estimates, heterogeneity stemming from differences in the participants' information is often… 

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