Pandemic Potential of a Strain of Influenza A (H1N1): Early Findings

@article{Fraser2009PandemicPO,
  title={Pandemic Potential of a Strain of Influenza A (H1N1): Early Findings},
  author={Christophe Fraser and Christl Ann Donnelly and Simon Cauchemez and William P. Hanage and Maria D. Van Kerkhove and T. D{\'e}irdre Hollingsworth and Jamie T. Griffin and Rebecca F. Baggaley and Helen E. Jenkins and Emily J. Lyons and Thibaut Jombart and Wes Hinsley and Nicholas C. Grassly and François Balloux and Azra C. Ghani and Neil M. Ferguson and Andrew Rambaut and Oliver G. Pybus and Hugo Lopez-Gatell and Celia Mercedes Alpuche-Aranda and Ietza Boj{\'o}rquez Chapela and Ethel Palacios Zavala and Dulce Ma Espejo Guevara and Francesco Checchi and Erika Garcia and St{\'e}phane Hugonnet and Cathy E. Roth},
  journal={Science},
  year={2009},
  volume={324},
  pages={1557 - 1561}
}
Swine Flu Benchmark The World Health Organization (WHO) announced on 29 April 2009, a level-5 pandemic alert for a strain of H1N1 influenza originating in pigs in Mexico and transmitting from human to human in several countries. Fraser et al. (p. 1557, published online 11 May; see the cover) amassed a team of experts in Mexico and WHO to make an initial assessment of the outbreak with a view to guiding future policy. The outbreak appears to have originated in mid-February in the village of La… 
The 2009 A (H1N1) influenza virus pandemic: A review.
Novel Influenza AH1N1 (Swine Flu)
The 2009 flu pandemic 5 is a global outbreak of Novel Influenza AH1N1, identified in April 2009, which infects and is transmitted between humans. It is thought to be a mutation, or more specifically,
Clinical aspects of pandemic 2009 influenza A (H1N1) virus infection.
Copyright © 2010 Massachusetts Medical Society. During the spring of 2009, a novel influenza A (H1N1) virus of swine origin caused human infection and acute respiratory illness in Mexico.1,2 After
[H1N1 influenza - pandemic, 2009].
TLDR
Based on epidemiologic data and worldwide experiences on influenza vaccination, both seasonal and H1N1 vaccinations are recommended for anyone 6 months of age or older who is at risk of becoming ill or of transmitting the viruses to others.
Inside the Outbreak of the 2009 Influenza A (H1N1)v Virus in Mexico
TLDR
The hypothesis that high population density and a mass gathering which took in Iztapalapa contributed to the rapid spread of the disease which developed in three peaks of activity throughout the Country is accepted.
Swine-origin influenza virus A(H1N1)v: lessons learnt from the early phase of the epidemic.
  • G. Rezza
  • Medicine
    European journal of public health
  • 2009
TLDR
The evidence of sustained community transmission of H1N1v in different countries on more than one continent led the World Health Organization to declare Phase 6 of pandemic alert (‘The Pandemic Phase’).
Novel Influenza A (H1N1): the twenty-first century influenza pandemic
TLDR
It can be concluded that Novel Influenza A (H1N1) can substantially transmit from human-to-human and may save many excess deaths in this pandemic.
Que sera, sera: evolution of the swine H1N1 influenza A virus
A new human influenza A virus (IAV) strain of swine-like origin emerged in Mexico and the United States in March and April of 2009 [1]. The virus disseminated globally with sufficient celerity that
2009-H1N1
TLDR
The newly developed H1N1 vaccine is expected to reduce the impact of the second wave of H 1N1 influenza pandemic in the population, especially, on high risk groups, with diminished complications, hospitalization rates, and mortality.
The first influenza pandemic of the 21st century
The 2009 H1N1 influenza virus (formerly known as swine flu) first appeared in Mexico and the United States in March and April 2009 and has swept the globe with unprecedented speed as a result of
...
...

References

SHOWING 1-10 OF 39 REFERENCES
Emergence of a novel swine-origin influenza A (H1N1) virus in humans.
TLDR
A novel swine-origin influenza A virus was identified as the cause of outbreaks of febrile respiratory infection ranging from self-limited to severe illness and it is likely that the number of confirmed cases underestimates thenumber of cases that have occurred.
Mitigation strategies for pandemic influenza in the United States.
TLDR
A large-scale stochastic simulation model is introduced and used to investigate the spread of a pandemic strain of influenza virus through the U.S. population and suggests that the rapid production and distribution of vaccines could significantly slow disease spread and limit the number ill to <10% of the population, particularly if children are preferentially vaccinated.
Strategies for containing an emerging influenza pandemic in Southeast Asia
TLDR
A simulation model of influenza transmission in Southeast Asia is used and it is shown that elimination of a nascent pandemic may be feasible using a combination of geographically targeted prophylaxis and social distancing measures, if the basic reproduction number of the new virus is below 1.8.
Transmissibility of 1918 pandemic influenza
TLDR
An estimate of the reproductive number for 1918 pandemic influenza is obtained by fitting a deterministic SEIR (susceptible-exposed-infectious-recovered) model to pneumonia and influenza death epidemic curves from 45 US cities, which suggests that the median value is less than three.
Potential impact of antiviral drug use during influenza pandemic.
TLDR
It is estimated that stockpiles that cover 20%–25% of the population would be sufficient to treat most of the clinical cases and could lead to 50% to 77% reductions in hospitalizations, if drugs are reserved for persons at high risk.
Oseltamivir resistance during treatment of influenza A (H5N1) infection.
TLDR
It is suggested that resistance can emerge during the currently recommended regimen of oseltamivir therapy and may be associated with clinical deterioration and that the strategy for the treatment of influenza A (H5N1) virus infection should include additional antiviral agents.
Transmission Dynamics and Control of Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome
TLDR
It is estimated that a single infectious case of SARS will infect about three secondary cases in a population that has not yet instituted control measures, and public-health efforts to reduce transmission are expected to have a substantial impact on reducing the size of the epidemic.
Strategies for mitigating an influenza pandemic
TLDR
It is found that border restrictions and/or internal travel restrictions are unlikely to delay spread by more than 2–3 weeks unless more than 99% effective, and vaccine stockpiled in advance of a pandemic could significantly reduce attack rates even if of low efficacy.
Mortality and influenza.
TLDR
Systematic virologic surveillance in Houston over the past seven years has revealed that influenza virus infections have been epidemic during each respiratory disease season, and the methods used to predict base-line mortality that show a seasonal rise in the absence of influenza activity may be inaccurate and lead to underestimation of mortality associated with flu virus infections.
...
...