Corpus ID: 195209907

P . Turchin * SOCIAL TIPPING POINTS AND TREND REVERSALS : A HISTORICAL APPROACH

@inproceedings{Turchin2012PT,
  title={P . Turchin * SOCIAL TIPPING POINTS AND TREND REVERSALS : A HISTORICAL APPROACH},
  author={P. Turchin},
  year={2012}
}
A useful approach to thinking about why outbreaks of political instability occur is to separate the causes into structural conditions and triggering events. Specific triggers of political upheaval, such as self-immolation of a Tunisian fruit vendor, are very hard, perhaps impossible to predict. On the other hand, structural pressures build up slowly and predictably, and are amenable to analysis and forecasting. The question is how do we gain a better understanding and, perhaps, ability to… Expand
1 Citations

Figures and Tables from this paper

The Size of History: Coincidence, Counterfactuality and Questions of Scale in History
  • 1
  • PDF

References

SHOWING 1-10 OF 27 REFERENCES
A Global Model for Forecasting Political Instability
  • 594
  • PDF
Dynamical Feedbacks between Population Growth and Sociopolitical Instability in Agrarian States
  • 70
  • PDF
Introduction: Reflections on Historical Prophecy in the Social Sciences
  • M. Hechter
  • Sociology
  • American Journal of Sociology
  • 1995
  • 37
Natural Experiments of History
  • 162
  • PDF
The analytics of the wage effect of immigration
  • 132
  • PDF
...
1
2
3
...