Overlapping Magnetic Activity Cycles and the Sunspot Number: Forecasting Sunspot Cycle 25 Amplitude

@article{McIntosh2020OverlappingMA,
  title={Overlapping Magnetic Activity Cycles and the Sunspot Number: Forecasting Sunspot Cycle 25 Amplitude},
  author={Scott W. McIntosh and Sandra C. Chapman and Robert J. Leamon and Ricky Egeland and Nicholas Wynn Watkins},
  journal={Solar Physics},
  year={2020},
  volume={295}
}
The Sun exhibits a well-observed modulation in the number of spots on its disk over a period of about 11 years. From the dawn of modern observational astronomy, sunspots have presented a challenge to understanding—their quasi-periodic variation in number, first noted 175 years ago, has stimulated community-wide interest to this day. A large number of techniques are able to explain the temporal landmarks, (geometric) shape, and amplitude of sunspot “cycles,” however, forecasting these features… 

Methodology for Predicting the Probability Distribution of the Amplitude of Solar Cycle 25

A number of precursor-type methods for solar-cycle prediction are based on the use of regression models and confidence-level estimates. A drawback of these methods is that they do not permit one to

Deciphering Solar Magnetic Activity: The (Solar) Hale Cycle Terminator of 2021

We previously identified an event in the solar timeline that appeared to play a role in how Sunspot Cycle 23 (SC23) transitioned into Sunspot Cycle 24 (SC24). The timeframe for this transition was

Solar superstorms: planning for an internet apocalypse

This paper investigates the impact of solar superstorms that can potentially cause large-scale Internet outages covering the entire globe and lasting several months and analyzes the robustness of the current Internet infrastructure and shows that submarine cables are at greater risk of failure compared to land cables.

Machine Learning-based Prediction of Sunspots using Fourier Transform Analysis of the Time Series

A machine learning-based prediction of the evolution of the current sunspot cycle (solar cycle 25) and predicts that the maximum number of sunspots will occur in 2025 March.

On the Strength and Duration of Solar Cycle 25: A Novel Quantile-based Superposed Epoch Analysis

Sunspot number (SSN) is an important - albeit nuanced - parameter that can be used as an indirect measure of solar activity. Predictions of upcoming active intervals, including the peak and timing of

Interplanetary medium monitoring with LISA: lessons from LISA Pathfinder

The Laser Interferometer Space Antenna (LISA) of the European Space Agency (ESA) will be the first low-frequency gravitational-wave observatory orbiting the Sun at 1 AU.  The LISA Pathfinder (LPF)

Variations in Observations of Geosynchronous Magnetopause and Last Closed Drift Shell Crossings With Magnetic Local Time

We analyze a set of events in which both electron flux dropouts caused by magnetopause shadowing and geosynchronous magnetopause crossings (GMCs) are observed. These observations are compared to

An Early Assessment of the Forecast by the Solar Cycle 25 Prediction Panel

The effects of solar activity on technology have increased the interest in solar forecasting both in the scientific community and in society. With two and a half years of data available, we are

Variability of the Sun’s Luminosity Places Constraints on the Thermal Equilibrium of the Convection Zone

Luminosity, which is the total amount of radiant energy emitted by an object, is one of the most critical quantities in astrophysics for characterizing stars. Equally important is the temporal

References

SHOWING 1-10 OF 53 REFERENCES

A RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN THE LENGTH AND ACTIVITY OF SUNSPOT CYCLES

In studying relationships between the length and the activity of sunspot cycles, three indices are considered for the activity of the 1 1 -year cycle in the number of sunspots : ( 1 ) the mean

The Solar Cycle

An examination of prediction techniques for the solar cycle is examined and a closer look at cycles 23 and 24 is taken.

Solar cycle prediction

A review of solar cycle prediction methods and their performance is given, including early forecasts for Cycle 25. The review focuses on those aspects of the solar cycle prediction problem that have

Quantifying the Solar Cycle Modulation of Extreme Space Weather

By obtaining the analytic signal of daily sunspot numbers since 1818 we construct a new solar cycle phase clock that maps each of the last 18 solar cycles onto a single normalized 11 year epoch. This

Application of Synoptic Magnetograms to Global Solar Activity Forecast

  • I. Kitiashvili
  • Physics, Environmental Science
    The Astrophysical Journal
  • 2020
Synoptic magnetograms provide us with knowledge about the evolution of magnetic fields on the solar surface and present important information for forecasting future solar activity. In this work,

Timing Terminators: Forecasting Sunspot Cycle 25 Onset

Recent research has demonstrated the existence of a new type of solar event, the “terminator.” Unlike the Sun’s signature events, flares and coronal mass ejections, the terminator most likely

Panel achieves consensus prediction of solar cycle 23

In September 1996, a panel of experts on solar cycle prediction techniques met in Boulder, Colorado, to survey forecasts of solar and geomagnetic activity and to arrive at a consensus on how the

Effects of Version 2 of the International Sunspot Number on Naïve Predictions of Solar Cycle 25

The recalibration of the International Sunspot Number brings new challenges to predictions of Solar Cycle 25. One is that the list of extrema for the original series is no longer usable because the
...