Overconfidence in Probability and Frequency Judgments: A Critical Examination

@article{Brenner1996OverconfidenceIP,
  title={Overconfidence in Probability and Frequency Judgments: A Critical Examination},
  author={Lyle A. Brenner and Derek J. Koehler and Varda Liberman and Amos Tversky},
  journal={Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes},
  year={1996},
  volume={65},
  pages={212-219}
}
The overconfidence observed in calibration studies has recently been questioned on both psychological and methodological grounds. In the first part of the article we discuss these issues and argue that overconfidence cannot be explained as a selection bias, and that it is not eliminated by random sampling of questions. In the second part of the article, we compare probability judgments for single events with judgments of relative frequency. Subjects received a target individual's personality… 

Tables from this paper

Overconfidence: It Depends on How, What, and Whom You Ask.

Determining why some people, some domains, and some types of judgments are more prone to overconfidence will be important to understanding how confidence judgments are made.

Heuristics and Biases: Support Theory: A Nonextensional Representation of Subjective Probability

This article presents a new theory of subjective probability according to which different descriptions of the same event can give rise to different judgments. The experimental evidence confirms the

Individual differences in the perception of probability

In recent studies of humans estimating non-stationary probabilities, estimates appear to be unbiased on average, across the full range of probability values to be estimated. This finding is

Representativeness revisited: Attribute substitution in intuitive judgment.

The program of research now known as the heuristics and biases approach began with a survey of 84 participants at the 1969 meetings of the Mathematical Psychology Society and the American

The domain specificity and generality of overconfidence: Individual differences in performance estimation bias

One hundred twenty-three college students performed a knowledge assessment task and a game of motor skill in which they had to predict their performance before each block of trials. There was a bias

Effects of Choice and Relative Frequency Elicitation on Overconfidence: Further Tests of an Exemplar-retrieval Model

An experiment is reported in which participants rendered judgments regarding the disease states of hypothetical patients. Participants either reported likelihoods that patients had the target disease

Subjective confidence in perceptual judgments: a test of the self-consistency model.

  • A. Koriat
  • Psychology
    Journal of experimental psychology. General
  • 2011
Predictions from a self-consistency model (SCM), which had been confirmed for general-information questions and social attitudes, are shown to hold true also for perceptual judgments, providing a general model for the basis and accuracy of confidence judgments across different domains.

Heuristics and Biases: When Predictions Fail: The Dilemma of Unrealistic Optimism

One of the most robust findings in the psychology of prediction is that people's predictions tend to be optimistically biased. By a number of metrics and across a variety of domains, people have been

Overconfidence in Judgements: the Evidence, the Implications and the Limitations

This paper examines the degree to which individuals tend to be overconfident in their judgements and identifies the implications for those trading in prediction markets. The findings from
...

References

SHOWING 1-10 OF 20 REFERENCES

Overconfidence In Overconfidence

Displays of “calibration curves” - very well replicated results of probability ratings on two-alternative knowledge questions - are often interpreted as an indication of human “overconfidence”.

Do those who know more also know more about how much they know?*1

Calibration of probabilities: the state of the art to 1980

From the subjectivist point of view (de Finetti, 1937/1964), a probability is a degree of belief in a proposition. It expresses a purely internal state; there is no “right,” “correct,” or “objective”

Judgment under uncertainty: A progress report on the training of probability assessors

In prescriptive analyses of decisions under uncertainty, decision makers and their expert advisors are often called upon to assess judgmental probability distributions of quantities whose values are

Timid choices and bold forecasts: a cognitive perspective on risk taking

Decision makers have a strong tendency to consider problems as unique. They isolate the current choice from future opportunities and neglect the statistics of the past in evaluating current plans.

The bounded rationality of probabilistic mental models.

to Effect of the

Parasiten können das Überleben und die Fitness ihrer Wirte auf unterschiedliche Weise beeinflussen. Unter anderem konkurrieren sie mit ihrem Wirt um Ressourcen die sonst in z.B. Wachstum oder