Overconfidence in Probability and Frequency Judgments : A Critical Examination

  title={Overconfidence in Probability and Frequency Judgments : A Critical Examination},
  author={Lyle A. Brenner and Derek J. Koehler},
the Amazon or the Nile?) or prediction problems (e.g., The overconfidence observed in calibration studies Who will win the election, the incumbent or the chalhas recently been questioned on both psychological lenger?). For each question, subjects select one of the and methodological grounds. In the first part of the two answers and assess the probability that their anarticle we discuss these issues and argue that overconswer is correct. A judge is said to be calibrated if his fidence cannot be… CONTINUE READING


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