Overconfidence: It Depends on How, What, and Whom You Ask.

@article{Klayman1999OverconfidenceID,
  title={Overconfidence: It Depends on How, What, and Whom You Ask.},
  author={Klayman and Soll and Gonz{\'a}lez-Vallejo and Barlas},
  journal={Organizational behavior and human decision processes},
  year={1999},
  volume={79 3},
  pages={
          216-247
        }
}
  • KlaymanSoll Barlas
  • Published 1 September 1999
  • Psychology
  • Organizational behavior and human decision processes
Many studies have reported that the confidence people have in their judgments exceeds their accuracy and that overconfidence increases with the difficulty of the task. However, some common analyses confound systematic psychological effects with statistical effects that are inevitable if judgments are imperfect. We present three experiments using new methods to separate systematic effects from the statistically inevitable. We still find systematic differences between confidence and accuracy… 

Figures and Tables from this paper

Overconfidence in interval estimates.

The authors show that overconfidence in interval estimates can result from variability in setting interval widths, and that subjective intervals are systematically too narrow given the accuracy of one's information-sometimes only 40% as large as necessary to be well calibrated.

Overconfidence or Something Else: Are People Genuinely Overconfident?

The question whether overconfidence is truly a psychological bias has attracted considerable attention in the overconfidence literature. Several studies have suggested that people only appear

Overconfidence of Professionals and Lay Men : Individual Differences Within and Between Tasks?

Overconfidence can manifest itself in various forms. For example, people think that their knowledge is more precise than it really is (miscalibration) and they believe that their abilities are above

A study of expert overconfidence

Does constructing a belief distribution truly reduce overconfidence?

Can overconfidence be reduced by asking people to provide a belief distribution over all possible outcomes-that is, by asking them to indicate how likely all possible outcomes are? Although prior

Trouble with Overconfidence 1 Running head : TROUBLE WITH OVERCONFIDENCE The Trouble with Overconfidence

This paper presents a reconciliation of the three distinct ways in which the res earch literature has defined overconfidence: (1) overestimation of one’s actual performance, (2) over placement of

True Overconfidence in Interval Estimates: Evidence Based on a New Measure of Miscalibration

Overconfidence is often regarded as one of the most prevalent judgment biases. Several studies show that overconfidence can lead to suboptimal decisions of investors, managers, or politicians. Recent
...

References

SHOWING 1-10 OF 59 REFERENCES

Confidence in judgment

  • N. Harvey
  • Psychology
    Trends in Cognitive Sciences
  • 1997

Determinants of Overconfidence and Miscalibration: The Roles of Random Error and Ecological Structure☆

Abstract Previous authors have attributed findings of overconfidence to psychological bias or to experimental designs unrepresentative of the environment. This paper provides evidence for an

Overconfidence in Probability and Frequency Judgments: A Critical Examination

The overconfidence observed in calibration studies has recently been questioned on both psychological and methodological grounds. In the first part of the article we discuss these issues and argue

Do those who know more also know more about how much they know?*1

Varieties of Confirmation Bias

Knowing with Certainty: The Appropriateness of Extreme Confidence.

How often are people wrong when they are certain that they know the answer to a question ? The studies reported here suggest that the answer is "too often." For a variety of general-knowledge

The Overconfidence Phenomenon as a Consequence of Informal Experimenter-Guided Selection of Almanac Items

Abstract The paper argues for an ecological approach to realism of confidence in general knowledge. It is stressed that choice of answer to almanac items and confidence judgments derive from

On the Importance of Random Error in the Study of Probability Judgment. Part II: Applying the Stochastic Judgment Model to Detect Systematic Trends

Erev, Wallsten, and Budescu (1994) and Budescu, Erev, and Wallsten (1997) demonstrated that over- and underconfidence often observed in judgment studies may be due, in part, to the presence of random

Probabilistic mental models: a Brunswikian theory of confidence.

A comprehensive framework for the theory of probabilistic mental models (PMM theory) is proposed, which explains both the overconfidence effect and the hard-easy effect and predicts conditions under which both effects appear, disappear, or invert.

Reasons for confidence.

People are often overconfident in evaluating the correctness of their knowledge. The present studies investigated the possibility that assessment of confidence is biased by attempts to justify one's
...