Overall burden and characteristics of COVID-19 in the United States during 2020

  title={Overall burden and characteristics of COVID-19 in the United States during 2020},
  author={Sen Pei and Teresa K. Yamana and Sasikiran Kandula and Marta Galanti and Jeffrey L. Shaman},
The COVID-19 pandemic disrupted health systems and economies throughout the world during 2020 and was particularly devastating for the United States. Many of epidemiological features that produced observed rates of morbidity and mortality have not been thoroughly assessed. Here we use a data-driven model-inference approach to simulate the pandemic at county-scale in the United States during 2020 and estimate critical, time-varying epidemiological properties underpinning the dynamics of the… 

Quantifying the impact of COVID-19 non-pharmaceutical interventions on influenza transmission in the United States

It is estimated that incidence of influenza A/H1 and B, which circulated in early 2020, was reduced by more than 60% in the US during the first ten weeks following implementation of NPIs, and the reduction of influenza transmission exhibits clear geographical variation.

Evaluating the impact of quarantine measures on COVID-19 spread

Results indicate that quarantine of susceptible and exposed individuals and undetected infections is necessary to contain the outbreak; however, the quarantine rates for these populations can be reduced through faster isolation of confirmed cases.

Aviator Occupational Behavior Surrounding COVID-19 Infection and Vaccination in the United States: A Cross-Sectional Population-Based Survey

An anonymous survey of U.S. pilot occupational behavior regarding COVID-19 infections and vaccinations found 23.8% of pilots reported a history of CO VID-19 infection but only 20.5% of infected pilots reported this history to an aeromedical examiner (AME)/flight surgeon.

Inferring the COVID-19 IFR with a simple Bayesian evidence synthesis of seroprevalence study data and imprecise mortality data

The results suggest that, despite immense efforts made to better understand the COVID-19 IFR, there remains a large amount of uncertainty and unexplained heterogeneity surrounding this important statistic.

Inferring the COVID-19 infection fatality rate in the community-dwelling population: a simple Bayesian evidence synthesis of seroprevalence study data and imprecise mortality data

The results suggest that, as one might expect, lower IFRs are associated with younger populations (and may also be associated with wealthier populations) and with the age and wealth of the United States and European Union.

COVID-19 Vaccination Coverage, Behaviors, and Intentions among Adults with Previous Diagnosis, United States

The need to focus educational and confidence-building interventions on adults when they receive a COVID-19 diagnosis, during clinic visits, or at the time of discharge if hospitalized and to better educate the public about the value of being vaccinated, regardless of previous CO VID-19 status is suggested.

Rejoinder: Regression Models for Understanding COVID-19 Epidemic Dynamics With Incomplete Data

To assess the performance of MERMAID when the model is fitted using a misspecified SI distribution, sensitivity analyses suggest this approach is robust to moderate misspecifications of the regression function, as well as the serial interval (SI) distribution and reporting delay distribution.

Deviations in Predicted COVID-19 cases in the US during early months of 2021 relate to rise in B.1.526 and its family of variants

Deviations from accurate predictive models are useful for investigating potential immune escape of COVID-19 variants at the population level and should be designated as variants of concern.

Population immunity to pre-Omicron and Omicron SARS-CoV-2 variants in US states and counties through December 1, 2021

While over three-quarters of the US population had prior immunological exposure to SARS-CoV-2 via vaccination or infection on December 1, 2021, only a fifth of the population was estimated to have effective protection to infection with the immune-evading Omicron variant.



Estimated incidence of COVID-19 illness and hospitalization — United States, February–September, 2020

  • Heather ReeseA. Iuliano C. Reed
  • Medicine
    Clinical infectious diseases : an official publication of the Infectious Diseases Society of America
  • 2020
Preliminary estimates of the cumulative incidence SARS-CoV-2 infections, symptomatic illnesses, and hospitalizations in the U.S. population from February 27–September 30, 2020 help demonstrate the societal and healthcare burdens of the COVID-19 pandemic and can help inform resource allocation and mitigation planning.

Differential effects of intervention timing on COVID-19 spread in the United States

It is found that marked, asynchronous reductions of the basic reproductive number occurred throughout the United States in association with social distancing and other control measures, and counterfactual simulations indicate that, had these same measures been implemented 1 to 2 weeks earlier, substantial cases and deaths could have been averted.

Projection of COVID-19 Cases and Deaths in the US as Individual States Re-open May 4,2020

The effects of loosening stay-at-home orders on COVID-19 incidence and related outcomes are evaluated and the lag between infection acquisition and case confirmation, coupled with insufficient broader testing and contact tracing, will mask any rebound and exponential growth of the CO VID-19 until it is well underway.

Three-quarters attack rate of SARS-CoV-2 in the Brazilian Amazon during a largely unmitigated epidemic

The spread of COVID-19 in Manaus, Brazil, shows that a largely unmitigated epidemic can infect a high fraction of the population and cause high mortality, and confirms that when poorly controlled, CO VID-19 caninfect a large proportion of the Population, causing high mortality.

Substantial undocumented infection facilitates the rapid dissemination of novel coronavirus (SARS-CoV-2)

It is estimated that 86% of all infections were undocumented before the 23 January 2020 travel restrictions, which explains the rapid geographic spread of SARS-CoV-2 and indicates that containment of this virus will be particularly challenging.

Forecasting the spatial transmission of influenza in the United States

An ensemble forecast system for predicting the spatiotemporal spread of influenza that uses readily accessible human mobility data and a metapopulation model is developed and validated and could be applied to emergent respiratory viruses and, with appropriate modifications, other infectious diseases.

Retrospective Parameter Estimation and Forecast of Respiratory Syncytial Virus in the United States

A susceptible-infectious-recovered (SIR) model is used in conjunction with an ensemble adjustment Kalman filter (EAKF) and ten years of regional U.S. specimen data provided by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention to study and forecast respiratory syncytial virus.

Temporal dynamics in viral shedding and transmissibility of COVID-19

It is estimated that 44% (95% confidence interval, 25–69%) of secondary cases were infected during the index cases’ presymptomatic stage, in settings with substantial household clustering, active case finding and quarantine outside the home.

Decline in SARS-CoV-2 Antibodies After Mild Infection Among Frontline Health Care Personnel in a Multistate Hospital Network — 12 States, April–August 2020

The results suggest that serology testing at a single time point is likely to underestimate the number of persons with previous SARS-CoV-2 infection, and a negative serologic test result might not reliably exclude prior infection.