Origins and estimates of uncertainty in predictions of twenty-first century temperature rise

@article{Stott2002OriginsAE,
  title={Origins and estimates of uncertainty in predictions of twenty-first century temperature rise},
  author={P. Stott and J. Kettleborough},
  journal={Nature},
  year={2002},
  volume={416},
  pages={723-726}
}
Predictions of temperature rise over the twenty-first century are necessarily uncertain, both because the sensitivity of the climate system to changing atmospheric greenhouse-gas concentrations, as well as the rate of ocean heat uptake, is poorly quantified and because future influences on climate—of anthropogenic as well as natural origin—are difficult to predict. Past observations have been used to help constrain the range of uncertainties in future warming rates, but under the assumption of… Expand
Predicting future uncertainty constraints on global warming projections
Observational Constraints on Past Attributable Warming and Predictions of Future Global Warming
Bayesian Modeling of Uncertainty in Ensembles of Climate Models
...
1
2
3
4
5
...

References

SHOWING 1-10 OF 60 REFERENCES
Causes of climate change over the past 1000 years
  • Crowley
  • Environmental Science, Medicine
  • Science
  • 2000
Interpretation of High Projections for Global-Mean Warming
...
1
2
3
4
5
...