Origins and estimates of uncertainty in predictions of twenty-first century temperature rise

@article{Stott2002OriginsAE,
  title={Origins and estimates of uncertainty in predictions of twenty-first century temperature rise},
  author={P. Stott and J. Kettleborough},
  journal={Nature},
  year={2002},
  volume={416},
  pages={723-726}
}
Predictions of temperature rise over the twenty-first century are necessarily uncertain, both because the sensitivity of the climate system to changing atmospheric greenhouse-gas concentrations, as well as the rate of ocean heat uptake, is poorly quantified and because future influences on climate—of anthropogenic as well as natural origin—are difficult to predict. Past observations have been used to help constrain the range of uncertainties in future warming rates, but under the assumption of… Expand
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