Optimal Strategy in Basketball

@article{Skinner2015OptimalSI,
  title={Optimal Strategy in Basketball},
  author={Brian Skinner and Matthew Goldman},
  journal={arXiv: Physics and Society},
  year={2015},
  pages={245-260}
}
This book chapter reviews some of the major principles associated with optimal strategy in basketball. In particular, we consider the principles of allocative efficiency (optimal allocation of shots between offensive options), dynamic efficiency (optimal shot selection in the face of pressure from the shot clock), and the risk/reward tradeoff (strategic manipulation of outcome variance). For each principle, we provide a simple example of a strategic problem and show how it can be described… 

Figures from this paper

Spatial performance analysis in basketball with CART, random forest and extremely randomized trees

This paper proposes tools for spatial performance analysis in basketball by representing maps of the court visualizing areas with different levels of scoring probability of the analysed player or team using CART-based ensemble learning algorithms namely to Random Forest and Extremely Randomized Trees.

Spatial Performance Indicators and Graphs in Basketball

A spatial statistical method based on classification trees, aimed to define a partition of the court in rectangles with maximally different shooting performances, so comparisons can be made among different teams/players.

The role of intrinsic dimension in high-resolution player tracking data—Insights in basketball

Hidalgo, a state-of-the-art Bayesian mixture model that allows the estimation of heterogeneous intrinsic dimensions (ID) within a dataset and propose some theoretical enhancements, finds that game-winners tend to have a larger intrinsic dimension which is an indication of more unpredictability and unique shot placements.

Transition Tensor Markov Decision Processes: Analyzing Shot Policies in Professional Basketball

This paper derives the dynamics of the team-average process such that the expected transition count for an arbitrary state-pair is equal to the weighted sum of the expected counts of the separate lineup-specific MDPs using a novel transition weighting scheme.

A Bayesian marked spatial point processes model for basketball shot chart

A Bayesian joint model for the mark and the intensity of marked point processes, where the intensity is incorporated in the mark model as a covariate is proposed, which suggests that the field goal percentage and the shot intensity are positively associated for a majority of the players.

A Bayesian Joint Model for Spatial Point Processes with Application to Basketball Shot Chart

The success rate of a basketball shot may be higher at locations where a player makes more shots. In a marked spatial point process model, this means that the marks are dependent on the intensity of

Recreating the Game: Using Player Tracking Data to Analyze Dynamics in Basketball and Football

Column Editor's note: Games like basketball and football have had limited success using statistical analysis to improve game strategy and evaluate players. Brian Macdonald explains that the

Behavioral and Cognitive Electrophysiological Differences in the Executive Functions of Taiwanese Basketball Players as a Function of Playing Position

The results suggested that although the guards and forwards exhibited similar abilities in terms of behavioral inhibition, different neural processing efficiencies still exist in the basketball playing positions, with guards showing divergent efficiencies in the target evaluation and response selection of the target and non-target stimuli and fewer cognitive resources during premotor preparation and decision-making as compared to the forwards.

Analysis of offensive performance during exclusions in female senior handball

ABSTRACT This study aimed to analyse offensive performance during exclusions in an elite female handball tournament concerning the different numerical inequality contexts. All exclusions sanctioned

Unpredictability in basketball: An exploration of the effects of ball movement entropy on performance in international women’s basketball

.................................................................................................................................................... xi

References

SHOWING 1-10 OF 50 REFERENCES

The Price of Anarchy in Basketball

Optimizing the performance of a basketball offense may be viewed as a network problem, wherein each play represents a “pathway" through which the ball and players may move from origin (the in-bounds

Optimal End-Game Strategy in Basketball

When faced with protecting a three-point lead in the waning seconds of a basketball game, which is a preferable strategy: playing defense or fouling the offense before they can attempt a game-tying

Allocative and Dynamic Efficiency in NBA Decision Making

This paper examines the optimality of the shooting decisions of National Basketball Association (NBA) players using a rich data set of shot outcomes. The decision to shoot is a complex problem that

Random Walk Picture of Basketball Scoring

We present evidence, based on play-by-play data from all 6087 games from the 2006/07– 2009/10 seasons of the National Basketball Association (NBA), that basketball scoring is well described by a

Generality of the matching law as a descriptor of shot selection in basketball.

Shot-selection matching varied systematically for players who were members of successful versus unsuccessful teams, competed at different levels of collegiate play, and served as regulars versus substitutes, suggesting that the matching law is a robust descriptor of basketball shot selection, although the mechanism that produces matching is unknown.

Optimal Stopping in the NBA: An Empirical Model of the Miami Heat

We study how highly experienced agents, professional basketball players, solve an optimal stopping problem. By rule, teams must shoot within 24 seconds of the start of a possession. The decision of

A Starting Point for Analyzing Basketball Statistics

The aim of this paper is to bring to a peer-reviewed journal the generally accepted basics of the analysis of basketball, thereby providing a common starting point for future research in basketball.

The Problem of Shot Selection in Basketball

In basketball, every time the offense produces a shot opportunity the player with the ball must decide whether the shot is worth taking. In this article, I explore the question of when a team should

Revisiting the Hot Hand Theory with Free Throw Data in a Multivariate Framework

Despite the conventional wisdom of the existence of the “hot hand" in basketball, studies have found no or weak evidence for the hot hand in game situations, although stronger evidence in controlled

Quantitative Analysis of Sports

In 2003, Michael C. Lewis published the book Moneyball: The Art of Winning an Unfair Game, detailing Billy Beane’s (the general manager of the Oakland Athletics Major League Baseball [MLB] team)