Optimal Predictions in Everyday Cognition : The Wisdom of Individuals or Crowds ?

@inproceedings{Mozera2008OptimalPI,
  title={Optimal Predictions in Everyday Cognition : The Wisdom of Individuals or Crowds ?},
  author={Michael C. Mozera and Harold Pashlerb and Hadjar Homaeia},
  year={2008}
}
  • Michael C. Mozera, Harold Pashlerb, Hadjar Homaeia
  • Published 2008
Griffiths and Tenenbaum (2006) asked individuals to make predictions about the duration or extent of everyday events (e.g., cake baking times), and reported that predictions were optimal, employing Bayesian inference based on veridical prior distributions. Although the predictions conformed strikingly to statistics of the world, they reflect averages over many individuals. On the conjecture that the accuracy of the group response is chiefly a consequence of aggregating across individuals, we… CONTINUE READING